PBKS — IPL 2026 Mid-Season Review & Run-In Plan

Punjab Kings rebuilt around the IPL 2025 mega-auction's most ambitious investment — Shreyas Iyer (`shreyas_iyer`) at ₹26.75 Cr as captain — paired with two ₹18 Cr signings in Yuzvendra Chahal (`yuzvendra_chahal`) and Arshdeep Singh (`arshdeep_singh`), the joint-highest IPL bowler price ever, alongside Bumrah. The squad spine: Marcus Stoinis (`marcus_stoinis`) at ₹11 Cr, Marco Jansen (`marco_jansen`) at ₹10.75 Cr, Shashank Singh (`shashank_singh`) at ₹5.5 Cr, Ben Dwarshuis (`ben_dwarshuis`) at ₹4.4 Cr, Nehal Wadhera (`nehal_wadhera`) at ₹4.2 Cr, Prabhsimran Singh (`prabhsimran_singh`) at ₹4 Cr, and the auction's most consequential young buy in Priyansh Arya (`priyansh_arya`) at ₹3.8 Cr, alongside Cooper Connolly (`cooper_connolly`) at ₹3 Cr and Mitch Owen (`mitch_owen`) at ₹3 Cr as developing overseas options.

The season has been the best start in PBKS history. Six wins in six played fixtures (one washout against KKR at Eden Gardens, points shared), placing PBKS atop the IPL 2026 table with 13 points and NRR +1.420. The campaign features a chased 209 against CSK (M7), a chased 219 against SRH at home (M17), a chased 195 against MI away (M24), a defended 254 against LSG at home with Arya 93 and Connolly 87 (M29), and the M35 chased 265 against DC away with seven balls to spare — the highest successful run chase in IPL history, despite KL Rahul's 152 not out.

Arshdeep became the first PBKS bowler to 100 IPL wickets on 16 April. M35 included a record powerplay 105/0 (Prabhsimran 76 off 26, Arya 43 off 17). All players fit; the XI has been unchanged across all six played matches.

PBKS's early dominance is better explained by system-level batting depth than any single player's influence. With four top-order batters averaging 42+ at SR 160+, the side has consistently overwhelmed opponents regardless of venue or match situation — a rare, high-variance configuration that masks underlying fragility. In particular, the bowling unit remains a concern (most frontline options at ~9.5+ economy, no control phases), suggesting that results so far are being driven by batting surplus rather than balanced team performance. The more relevant question is sustainability: if even one or two of the top-order contributors regress, PBKS may be forced into tighter games where their bowling and game management are more directly tested.

✅ The top four (Arya, Prabhsimran, Connolly, Iyer) all averaging 42-plus at SR 160-plus is the league's deepest batting unit; PBKS have batted first or chased — both successfully — at every venue. ⚠️ The bowling has been collectively expensive (4 of 5 frontline at econ 9.5-plus) with no maiden overs; if the chase formula stalls, the bowling unit may not be able to defend par. With playoffs essentially secured per ESPNcricinfo, PBKS's run-in priority shifts to top-2 finish and a Qualifier 1 berth.

The 25-man roster is allrounder-heavy: 7 batters, 8 bowlers, 10 all-rounders, no specialist keeper. Prabhsimran has kept in every 2026 match. Indian-overseas split is 17:8 with deep overseas options (Connolly, Stoinis, Jansen, Dwarshuis, Bartlett, Ferguson, Owen, Omarzai). Yet to feature in 2026: Lockie Ferguson (`lockie_ferguson`), Mitch Owen, Ben Dwarshuis, Azmatullah Omarzai (`azmatullah_omarzai`), Harpreet Brar (`harpreet_brar`), Yash Thakur (`yash_thakur`), Musheer Khan, Pravin Dubey, Pyla Avinash, Vishnu Vinod, Vishal Nishad, Suryansh Shedge, Harnoor Pannu.

Five veterans have crossed 50 IPL matches: Chahal (174), Iyer (133), Stoinis (109), Arshdeep (82), Prabhsimran (51). Six experienced (15-50), seven developing, seven uncapped. Iyer (3,939 career runs) leads the team-most-runs-career list, then Stoinis (2,074), Prabhsimran (1,516), Shashank (824), Wadhera (759). Iyer's 30 career fifties is #5 IPL all-time behind Kohli, Rohit, Rahul, and Rahane.

✅ The auction-strategy of one mega-priced captain (Iyer ₹26.75 Cr) plus three mid-tier overseas all-rounders (Stoinis, Jansen, Connolly) plus several base-priced young talents (Arya, Owen, Connolly) has produced league-leading depth. Connolly at ₹3 Cr returning 223 runs at avg 55, SR 164 = ₹1.35 lakh per run = team #1 price-per-run, the auction's single most efficient pick. ⚠️ The bowling spend (Chahal ₹18 Cr plus Arshdeep ₹18 Cr plus Jansen ₹10.75 Cr = ₹46.75 Cr) is elite, but 2026 returns have been mid-table; Chahal's price-per-wicket of ₹4.5 Cr/wkt and Arshdeep's ₹3 Cr/wkt are below efficiency expectations.

3.1 Openers

Arya plus Prabhsimran from M4 onwards; the XI has been unchanged across six matches. Arya's SR 248 is the team #1 (and IPL-tier-leading among regular openers); he has 2 fifties in 5 innings, 20 sixes in 5 matches (#3 IPL 2026 six-hitters), and #3 IPL 2026 consistency rating (104.76) despite his attacking approach. His career numbers at upcoming venues are emphatic: Mullanpur 8 matches at avg 39, SR 222 (his career home venue); Eden Gardens 1 match, 69 at SR 197; against SRH 2 matches at avg 47, SR 281 (his career-best opposition); against LSG 3 matches at SR 204. Prabhsimran's 80 not out off 39 won M24 against MI; his 76 off 26 anchored the M35 record chase. Career splits at upcoming venues: Mullanpur 13 matches at SR 154, Eden 4 matches at avg 49, SR 193, HPCA 5 matches at SR 157. Vishnu Vinod has only 6 career matches and DNP in 2026; depth is thin but hasn't been needed.

3.2 Top Order (No. 3 / 4)

Connolly at three, Iyer at four — locked. Connolly's 87 off 46 against LSG is the season's most asymmetric performance from a base-priced overseas signing. His career 3 matches at Mullanpur returned 170 runs at avg 85, SR 167, and one match against LSG returned 87 at SR 189 (his career-best opposition split). Iyer's captaincy and form are co-dependent — three IPL 2026 fifties (#3 league-wide), 208 runs at avg 52, SR 182. His career Mullanpur (8 matches, 119 runs at avg 17, SR 154) is modest by his standards, but the 2026 form is recovering it. Career splits against upcoming opposition: against SRH 20 matches at avg 42, SR 137 (his most-faced opponent); MI 21 matches at avg 35, SR 133; RR 15 matches at avg 31, SR 134; DC 5 matches, 200 runs at avg 50, SR 145. Don't rotate Iyer down the order to give Stoinis a top-order role; Iyer's three fifties prove the role is working.

3.3 Middle Order (No. 5-7)

Stoinis at five, Wadhera at six, Shashank at seven. Stoinis's role has been power-hitter cameos (48 runs in 6 at SR 185); his career splits against upcoming opposition are excellent — against LSG 3 matches, 44 runs at SR 209 (his best opposition SR); against DC 9 matches at avg 41; against MI 19 matches, 352 at avg 29. Career 14 wickets against MI at avg 18 in 19 matches (his best bowling matchup), but Stoinis hasn't bowled in 2026 (workload management). Shashank Singh has been the season's quiet sixth bowler — 3 wickets at avg 13, econ 7.8 (team #1 low-wicket econ); his career numbers against SRH (3 wickets at avg 17, his best opposition split as a bowler) make him relevant for M49. Wadhera's career against RR is 3 matches, 181 runs at avg 60, SR 177 (his career-best opposition); flag this for M40.

3.4 Powerplay Bowling

Arshdeep and Jansen, with Bartlett rotation. Arshdeep's 6 wickets and 9.64 econ aren't elite by his standards — career 174 wickets at avg 28 — but his 100-IPL-wickets milestone confirms the pedigree. His career against RR (11 matches, 18 wickets at avg 24) and against SRH (12 matches, 17 wickets at avg 22) are upcoming-opponent leverage. Jansen's #1 team economy 2026 (8.5) plus career 9 wickets at avg 22 against KKR (his career-best opposition) and 7 wickets at avg 12 against RCB (his best by avg) are the top matchup deployments. ⚠️ Bartlett's career 5 matches at Mullanpur returned just 2 wickets at avg 95; his Indian-conditions adaptation is the slowest among the overseas pacers.

3.5 Middle Overs Bowling

Vyshak and Chahal in middle overs, with Shashank rotation. Vyshak's 6 wickets at avg 28 has been the season's most underrated bowling contribution at ₹1.8 Cr — team #2 price-per-wicket (₹30 lakh per wicket). His career against DC (1 match, 3 wickets at avg 7) and GT (4 matches, 6 wickets at avg 21) suggest specific matchup utility. Chahal at ₹18 Cr returning 4 wickets at avg 41 is the season's biggest gap between spend and output among PBKS marquees; career against KKR (33 wickets at avg 21, his best opposition) is the M12 (washed-out) leverage. Harpreet Brar (₹1.5 Cr) hasn't featured in 2026, but his career 11 wickets against RCB at avg 21 (his career-best opposition) makes him the impact-sub option for M61 at Dharamsala. ⚠️ The spin attack is single-pronged; if Chahal is off-form, Brar has yet to feature.

3.6 Death Overs Bowling

Arshdeep and Vyshak at the death. PBKS have not had to defend small totals; they've batted first only twice (M17 set 223, M29 set 254) and chased four times. The death-bowling sample is therefore mixed: in M35 they conceded 264 (couldn't defend a sub-265 total), but they've still won by chasing. Arshdeep's 3/22 against MI (M24) was the season's best individual death-overs return. ⚠️ Bartlett 1/69 in 4 overs against DC (M35) was the death's worst contribution — econ 17; he's deployed for the matchup but the cost has been high.

The 2026 mix from six played matches:

Career-validated cross-check: Chahal's career LBW rate (around 10%) projects roughly one LBW expected in 4 wickets; he has zero. Arshdeep's career 3 caught-behind in 7 (43%) is unusually high — the Prabhsimran-keeper synergy is producing edges that get caught, validating Prabhsimran's career stumpings rate (modest, but improving). Jansen's 1 LBW in 5 wickets (20%) is consistent with his hard-length identity. Vyshak's 2 caught-behind in 6 (33%) is the squad's hidden stat — back-of-length returns to the keeper.

The mix is heavily caught-driven (19 of 28, 68%), consistent with PBKS's deep-fielder strategy at high-scoring venues. The complete absence of stumpings suggests Chahal's deeper trajectories haven't been beating batters in flight enough; the 0 LBWs from spinners is also unusual. At HPCA (3 fixtures in M55, M58, M61), the smaller boundaries reward stump-attack lines. Brar's career 11 wickets against RCB at avg 21 with his orthodox-LH variation could provide stump-attack at one of the Dharamsala fixtures. The dismissal data sample is 6 matches; with both Mitch Owen (RH medium with bouncer threat) and Ferguson (express pace) on the bench, the squad's stump-attack DNA is largely unused but available.

Eight fixtures, but M12 against KKR at Eden Gardens (6 April) was washed out and is not replayable; both teams shared 1 point. So 7 truly remaining matches: 1 home (Mullanpur), 7 away or neutral (Eden Gardens, Mullanpur for M40, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, three at Dharamsala, Lucknow). After M35's record chase PBKS sit at 13 points (NRR +1.420, league-best). Live qualification odds put PBKS around 95-97%, essentially playoff-locked per ESPNcricinfo and other simulation sources. The remaining priority is top-2 finish (16-18 points) for a Qualifier 1 berth. Toughest remaining: SRH at Hyderabad (M49, SRH's home dominance), MI at Dharamsala (M58, Rohit returns), RCB at Dharamsala (M61, table contender clash). Most winnable: RR at home (M40), GT at Ahmedabad (M46), DC at Dharamsala (M55), LSG at Lucknow (M68).

Match 40 — vs RR at Mullanpur (2026-04-28) — home

Context. No 2026 H2H. Mullanpur career splits: Arya 8 matches, 311 runs at avg 39, SR 222 (his career-best venue); Prabhsimran 13 matches, 261 at avg 20, SR 154; Iyer 8 matches, 119 at SR 154; Connolly 3 matches, 170 at avg 85, SR 167. Career bowling at Mullanpur is mid-table: Arshdeep 14 wickets at avg 30; Bartlett 2 wickets at avg 95 (anomaly). RR are at the 4th-place tier; Jadeja, Bishnoi, and Archer in form. Toss preference. Bat first. Mullanpur's small ground rewards setting big totals; PBKS have batted first twice and won both convincingly. Key opposition threats. Yashasvi Jaiswal, the LH: Jansen's left-arm angle counter (career 4 wickets against RR at avg 43, mixed). Ravi Bishnoi, leg-spin: Arya's career SR 248 against leg-spin is the matchup. Jofra Archer: Iyer's career against Archer is mixed; Wadhera's career 181 runs at avg 60, SR 177 against RR is his career-best opposition split. Recommended XI:

```

• Priyansh Arya — Opener
• Prabhsimran Singh — Opener, K
• Cooper Connolly — overseas
• Shreyas Iyer — C
• Marcus Stoinis — overseas
• Nehal Wadhera
• Shashank Singh
• Marco Jansen — overseas
• Xavier Bartlett — overseas
• Arshdeep Singh
• Yuzvendra Chahal

+ Vyshak Vijaykumar — impact sub

Overseas: Connolly, Stoinis, Jansen, Bartlett (4/4)

```

Why this XI. Zero changes from M35. The XI has been unchanged across all six played matches; the formula is working. Don't rotate Stoinis out for Wadhera-as-five — Wadhera's career against RR is the best matchup, but Stoinis brings the bowling-allrounder option as sixth-bowler insurance even though he hasn't bowled this season. Impact sub. Vyshak Vijaykumar — already used as impact sub in earlier matches; his bowling slot is high-leverage when defending or bowling first.

Match 46 — vs GT at Ahmedabad (2026-05-03) — away

Context. PBKS won the home leg in M4 (defended 165 by 3 wickets — the season's only narrow win). GT now in the 6-point zone with playoff hopes alive. NMS career splits: Iyer 4 matches, 243 runs at SR 223 (his career-best venue!); Arya 3 matches, 91 at avg 30; Prabhsimran 6 matches at SR 105 (his weakest venue); Stoinis 7 matches at avg 15 (his weakest career venue); Omarzai (Afghan player) 7 matches, 7 wickets at avg 31 — could be high-leverage matchup. GT defending home; Sai Sudharsan and Buttler in form. Toss preference. Bat first. Ahmedabad's flat surface plus PBKS's batting strength. Key opposition threats. Shubman Gill (IPL 2026 #4 run-scorer at 297): Chahal's career against GT 8 wickets at avg 30. Jos Buttler, LH: Jansen's left-arm angle. Prasidh Krishna (IPL 2026 #4 wicket-taker): Iyer's career SR 187 against GT is the response. Recommended XI. Same as M40. Consider Azmatullah Omarzai for Bartlett — Omarzai's career 7 wickets at NMS (his career-best venue) is too valuable to leave out, and he provides Indian-quota all-rounder versatility. But the XI hasn't been broken yet; sticking with the formula is correct. Impact sub. Omarzai if PBKS bowls first — his career 4 wickets at NMS is the venue specialty.

Match 49 — vs SRH at Hyderabad (2026-05-06) — away

Context. PBKS won the home leg in M17 (chased 219 by 6 wickets — Iyer 69 not out, Arya 57, Prabhsimran 51). The reverse fixture at Rajiv Gandhi Stadium brings SRH's home advantage. Career splits at RGI: Iyer 4 matches, 221 runs at avg 73, SR 154 (his second-best venue); Arya 1 match, 36 at SR 277; Prabhsimran 4 matches, 129 at avg 32, SR 150. Jansen career 6 matches, 6 wickets at avg 32; Arshdeep 4 matches, 5 wickets at avg 27. Iyer career against SRH 20 matches, 636 runs at avg 42, SR 137 — his most-faced opponent. SRH at top of upper tier with Klaasen, Abhishek, and Head; their high-scoring approach is PBKS's mirror image. Toss preference. Bat first. Set a target and force SRH to chase 220-plus. Key opposition threats. Abhishek Sharma (IPL 2026 #2 run-scorer): Jansen's LH-LH plan (career against SRH 0 wickets in 2). Klaasen: Chahal's career against SRH 29 wickets at avg 25 (his second-best opposition split career-wide). Eshan Malinga (IPL 2026 #3 wicket-taker): PBKS openers must absorb his first two overs. Recommended XI. Same as M40 — settled XI. Consider rotating Yash Thakur in for Bartlett; Yash's style suits flat surfaces, and Bartlett at avg 57 is the slowest-converting overseas pacer. But unchanged is the principle. Impact sub. Harpreet Brar — career 4 wickets against SRH at avg 40 is mixed, but his LH-orthodox variation against Klaasen LH-on-LH is a matchup option.

Match 55 — vs DC at Dharamsala (2026-05-11) — neutral home

Context. PBKS won the away leg today (M35) chasing 265, an IPL record. The reverse at HPCA Dharamsala is PBKS's neutral-home advantage. Career splits at HPCA: Stoinis 1 match at SR 300 (one cameo); Iyer 1 match at SR 180; Prabhsimran 5 matches, 151 runs at SR 157; Shashank 3 matches at avg 48, SR 179; Arshdeep 5 matches, 7 wickets at avg 23 (his career-best venue for wickets). PBKS's career at HPCA: 26 matches, 13 wickets at avg 8 econ 11.77 (mixed). DC just lost the highest-defended chase ever, but Rahul, Rana, and Stubbs remain dangerous. Toss preference. Bat first. HPCA's small ground. Key opposition threats. KL Rahul (career-best 152 not out in M35 was a once-in-a-decade innings): Chahal career against DC 23 wickets at avg 25 (his second-best opposition). Tristan Stubbs (IPL 2026 #3 batting avg at 65): Jansen's LH-LH. Mitchell Starc (likely back from injury for DC by M55): left-arm new-ball threat to LH Arya. Recommended XI. Same as M40 — XI continuity is the operating principle. Impact sub. Lockie Ferguson — his career against DC 7 matches, 11 wickets at avg 17 is his best opposition split career-wide. Worth playing him for matchup advantage even at the cost of an overseas swap. Consider Ferguson in for Bartlett; Ferguson's express pace has been completely unused this season (DNP).

Match 58 — vs MI at Dharamsala (2026-05-14) — neutral home

Context. PBKS won the away leg at Wankhede in M24 (chased 195 by 7 wickets — Prabhsimran 80 not out). MI by then will have Rohit returned (M41 onwards) and the bowling unit reshuffled. Career against MI: Iyer 21 matches, 567 runs at avg 35, SR 133; Arya 3 matches, 97 at avg 32, SR 180; Stoinis 19 matches, 352 at SR 146; Stoinis bowling against MI 14 wickets at avg 18 (his career-best opposition split bowling). Jansen against MI 6 wickets at avg 25. MI desperate, on the must-win 6/7 path. Toss preference. Bat first. Neutral-home advantage. Key opposition threats. Tilak Varma, the LH: Chahal career against MI 30 wickets at avg 23 (his second-best opposition); Jansen LH-on-LH matchup if available. Bumrah: Iyer's career SR 133 against MI suggests cautious approach early. Ashwani Kumar (IPL 2026 best bowling avg/SR): PBKS openers must absorb his overs. Recommended XI. Same as M40 with consider Ferguson in for Bartlett — Ferguson career 5 wickets against MI at avg 24. Or stick with unchanged XI. Impact sub. Stoinis to bowl 1-2 overs in middle if Tilak or SKY threaten — his career 14 wickets against MI at avg 18 is the squad's best matchup card, even though he hasn't bowled in 2026.

Match 61 — vs RCB at Dharamsala (2026-05-17) — neutral home

Context. No 2026 H2H. RCB at top tier. Career against RCB: Iyer 18 matches, 409 runs at avg 24, SR 119 (his weakest opposition by SR); Stoinis 16 matches, 307 at SR 159; Wadhera 6 matches, 134 at avg 33, SR 134; Jansen career against RCB 7 wickets at avg 12 (his career-best opposition by avg); Brar career against RCB 11 wickets at avg 21 (his career-best opposition split). RCB at 80% playoff odds; Kohli, Tim David, and Patidar in form. Toss preference. Bat first. Set 200-plus. Key opposition threats. Virat Kohli (IPL 2026 #1 run-scorer at 328): Chahal career against RCB 10 wickets at avg 31 (mixed). Tim David (IPL 2026 #1 batting avg plus #1 match-winners-2026): Jansen's left-arm angle is the matchup. Phil Salt, the LH opener: Jansen LH-on-LH. Recommended XI. Same as M40. Consider Brar in for Vyshak (impact sub adjusted) given his career against RCB 11 wickets at avg 21 is the best LH-orthodox option against Kohli. But Brar hasn't played 2026, so risk of role disruption. Impact sub. Brar — career against RCB matchup. Or Ferguson — career against RCB 8 wickets at avg 21.

Match 68 — vs LSG at Lucknow (2026-05-23) — away

Context. PBKS won the home leg at Mullanpur in M29 by 54 runs (defended 254 — Arya 93, Connolly 87). The reverse at Ekana flips home advantage. Ekana career splits: Stoinis 15 matches, 336 runs at avg 30, SR 136 (his second-best career venue); Prabhsimran 3 matches at SR 204 (small sample); Iyer 2 matches at SR 167; Wadhera 3 matches at avg 52, SR 122; Yash Thakur 8 matches, 12 wickets at avg 23 (his career-best venue). LSG likely eliminated by M68; PBKS in playoff-positioning mode. Toss preference. Chase. Ekana dew under lights. Key opposition threats. Mitchell Marsh (career against PBKS 9 matches, 158 runs at avg 19, his weakest opposition). Prince Yadav (IPL 2026 #2 wicket-taker): Arya's career against LSG (SR 204) is the response. Mohsin Khan (IPL 2026 #1 maiden-overs): LH yorker counter to PBKS's RH-heavy lineup. Recommended XI. Same as M40 with Yash Thakur consideration for Bartlett; Thakur's career Ekana 12 wickets at avg 23 is the venue specialty. Worth deploying for the only Lucknow fixture. Impact sub. Thakur as the venue-specialist swap; otherwise Vyshak.

✅ The unbeaten run is structural, not lucky. Six wins in six played via four different routes: defended 165 against GT (M4), chased 209 against CSK (M7), chased 219 against SRH (M17), chased 195 against MI (M24), defended 254 against LSG (M29), chased 265 against DC (M35). The team has demonstrated batting-first AND chasing AND defending small AND chasing huge totals.

✅ Top four batters all averaging 42-plus at SR 160-plus is the league's deepest unit. Connolly 56/164, Prabhsimran 53/172, Iyer 52/182, Arya 42/248. The aggregation of all four firing simultaneously has produced 853 of PBKS's runs across just 6 matches.

✅ Cooper Connolly at ₹3 Cr is one of the IPL 2026 best-value finds. 223 runs at avg 56, SR 164 = team #1 price-per-run (₹1.35 lakh per run). Bracket with Prince Yadav at LSG, Ashwani Kumar at MI, Anshul Kamboj at CSK, and Mukul Choudhary at LSG as the auction's hidden gold.

✅ Iyer's leadership has produced 3 fifties plus India T20I captaincy buzz. #3 IPL 2026 fifty-makers, #5 consistency rating, career #5 fifty-makers all-time (30). Per 24 April news, Ashwin, Finch, and Chawla are advocating his return to India's T20I setup.

✅ Schedule has 3 Dharamsala fixtures (M55, M58, M61) at PBKS's neutral-home advantage. Career splits at HPCA (Prabhsimran SR 157, Stoinis SR 300 in 1, Arshdeep career-best venue at 7 wickets at avg 23) give the run-in a structural tilt.

⚠️ Bowling has been collectively expensive (econ 9-12 across the frontline 5). 4 of 5 frontline at econ 9.5-plus. Mitigation: PBKS have outscored opponents to date; the formula doesn't require defending sub-200 totals. The M35 chase showed they conceded 264; if a defending fixture arrives, the bowling may not be able to lock down 180.

⚠️ Chahal at ₹18 Cr returning 4 wickets at avg 41 is below efficiency expectations. Career 174 wickets at avg 23, baseline projects 7-8 wickets in 6 matches; he has 4. Mitigation: career against KKR (33 wickets at avg 21) and against MI (30 wickets at avg 23) are both upcoming; recovery is plausible.

⚠️ Bartlett career 5 matches at Mullanpur returned 2 wickets at avg 95. Indian-conditions adaptation is the slowest among overseas pacers. Mitigation: rotate Lockie Ferguson into the XI for matchup-specific deployment — career against DC (11 wickets at avg 17 in 7, his career-best opposition) and against MI (5 wickets at avg 24).

⚠️ Three Dharamsala fixtures bring high-altitude conditions. PBKS career at HPCA is 26 matches, 346 runs at avg 13 batting (modest). Mitigation: home-crowd amplification plus Mullanpur's similar venue conditions transfer; toss preference (bat first, set targets) is consistent with PBKS's natural approach.

⚠️ No PBKS bowler in IPL 2026 top-7 wicket-takers. The wicket distribution has been spread (no spearhead) — a strength in unpredictability but a weakness when needing a single match-winner. Mitigation: Stoinis as sixth bowler (career 14 wickets against MI at avg 18) is the unused matchup card; deploying him in 1-2 overs against critical batters could become the late-season tactical lever.